Forecasting Productivity in Forest Fire Suppression Operations: A Methodological Approach Based on Suppression Difficulty Analysis and Documented Experience

The abandonment of land, the high energy load generated and accumulated by vegetation covers, climate change and interface scenarios in Mediterranean forest ecosystems are demanding serious attention to forest fire conditions. This is particularly true when dealing with the budget requirements for undertaking protection programs related to the state of current and future forest landscapes. Based on economic analysis, suppression costs represent a significant proportion of the total budget available for forest fire protection programs. The need to make efficient use of available budgets requires directing funding towards areas with the lowest costs and maximum benefits. Accordingly, incorporating econometric tools enables establishing criteria to optimize budget allocation. In trying to optimize budget allocation experience capitalization takes on great importance. Modeling the fire suppression process and budget allocation requires knowing how suppression is managed, how resources are dispatched and how costs are incurred. Advances in the design of fire management tools have benefited from current techniques, (e.g., knowledge capitalization, utility analysis, efficiency analysis) for economic analysis of the potential hazard posed by forest ecosystems conditions and related fire suppression operations difficulties based on fire behavior expectations. Incorporation of econometric tools based on efficiency, productivity, and utility functions help fire managers define budgetary requirements to ensure ecosystem protection compatible with the value of the resources being protected and associated suppression difficulties and costs. The methodological approach presented here allows forecasting fire suppression operations 1 An abbreviated version of this paper was presented at the Fourth International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: Climate Change and Wildfires. November 5-11, 2012, Mexico City, Mexico. 2 Professor and Director, Forest Fire Protection Laboratory, Department of Forestry Engineering, Graduate Technical School of Forestry and Agronomic Engineering. University of Cordoba, Leonardo DaVinci Building, Rabanales Campus, 14071, Cordoba, Spain; Email: [email protected]. 3 Research Economist, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 4955 Canyon Crest Drive, Riverside, CA 92507 USA; Email: [email protected] 4 A set of recorded and organized experiences of suppression plans and associated organizations used in different fires available to fire incident commanders as references or lessons learned from prior fires. Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: Climate Change and Wildfires 51 productivity, based on suppression difficulty and cost, as well as records from documented fire suppression operation plans from prior fires.